I'm not sure who knows how some of these things work but the VSP gives the company the ability to plan a org flatten and restructure over time, that's the "Long Term" plan.
RIF is the big cut
So..... The order of things
Phase 1
String this along, a percentage have already and will just quit (voluntary attrition is best and cheap)
Then kick off the plan.
Step 1 - VSP notifications and dates are final
Step 2 - Month or so, after a period of time to give people that are not happy with their VSP to just quit on their own. (again voluntary attrition is cheap)
Step 3 - Some point around the month you'll see a sizable RIF to scoop out the undesirables that didn't take VSP.
Step 4 - Long departure dates, the workload will increase, metrics ill change, micro management will be the theme.