#economy

Joined 3 years ago. People tell me that prices go up and down, bo-m and bust cycles. That makes sense but it now feels that it'll never go up, almost like this is a systemic change. Not sure, it's just my gut feeling but I wanted to see if people with experience can chime in.

US layoffs fell in September, but hiring plans dropped to their lowest level in 16 years, according to new data. At the same time, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway agreed to acquire Occidental Petroleum’s OxyChem unit in a $9.7 billion deal, Tesla reported record Q3 EV deliveries, and OpenAI became the world’s most valuable private company with a $500 billion valuation.

U.S. employers cut nearly 950,000 jobs through September 2025, the highest number of layoffs since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Cuts could surpass 1 million this year. While still far below the 2 million layoffs in the same period of 2020, the rise highlights a weakening labor market. Hiring plans have also dropped sharply, with companies expecting to bring on 58% fewer workers compared to last year.

The government shutdown could lead to additional job losses, and data from ADP shows private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September. However, layoffs slowed in September to about 54,000, down 37% from August.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September and expects two more cuts this year, aiming to support businesses and consumers. Lower borrowing costs may help stabilize hiring, but ongoing challenges such as higher costs and new technology continue to pressure employers.

Economists expect Friday’s government jobs report to be delayed due to the shutdown, with private estimates forecasting only about 50,000 jobs added last month.

Will Cisco engage in another round of layoffs? yes. 100%
Will Cisco LRs happen next week? in November on the Q1 earnings call? in February on the Q2 earnings call? in May for Q3 or August for Q4/FY ? yes, probably.

Is Cisco bad? no. Cisco us a soulless entity (a corporation) that exists to enrich it's owners (shareholders). Some of the people who lead Cisco may be 'bad' but that is a value judgement.

You, the employee, have a choice to make. You can work and consume based on yesterday's economy or you can make some changes now.

You WILL get laid off and the economy, hiring environment and future looks bleak. These are facts and why you and your colleagues are feeling hyper stressed right now. IT feels unnatural. It feels different.

In the past a looming LR was a bad feeling, now its panic.

Use that panic to do something.

There are essentially two levers that you have control of, Your personal investing and your personal spending.

one the spending side the alarm klaxon should be wailing right now. start with the big rocks, for maost of you these are housing, transportation, healthcare, debt servicing ann education. For some of you it's bourbon, handbags or gadgetry.
This is not a "Latte Factor" discussion, saving $4 a day will not cut it.
Go hard. Be relentless. Sell your luxury car (while you can) and buy a reliable one. no one cares.
Trade down to a smaller, more affordable house in a nice neighborhood.
Review all of you insurance and healthcare needs and find ways to reduce expenditures.

on the investing side, build a cash reserve equal to 6 moths of expenses (at a minimum) Money Markets still earn close to 4% which is a great return for short term investments.

while you are doing that make sure you are investing enough into your 401K to get the company match (I don't work for Cisco but assume 4-5%) once you have your 6 months of expenses, max your 401k.

One benefit this gives you is that it helps you to remain tied to your ethical anchor. your principles and values matter. Financial stress creates ethical dilemmas. Financial Independence allows you to avoid many of those.

Cisco doesn't care about you because Cisco can't care about you. Some people at Cisco are good, some are bad. Embrace the good, reject the bad and stay true to yourself.

Let’s not let the government off the hook as they are enabling ExxonMobil and others. They had no problem letting blue collar jobs off shore for cheap products that are “reduced carbon emission” which is a joke in itself. And then letting wages be undercut by illegals given free access across the border.

Now high paying high skill jobs are being worked remote along with rotating “temporary” jobs under L1 visa which are in fact a permanent displacement of a full time person.

The government not only doesn’t care but don’t understand the magnitude and impact of all this and without a drastic shift in policy, it’s going to be very hard to put the genie sick in the bottle.

All I want to say is that, I hope this is being carefully managed. This and the housing bubble could burst at once... however, they keep listening to the very same people that are creating this bubble...

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The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together, Deutsche Bank warns

When the bubble bursts, reality will hit far harder than anyone expects

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED: Warnings about the overinflated prospects of a still-hypothetical "AI economy" continue to mount. Some analysts expect the AI bubble to burst sooner rather than later, arguing that current investment growth cannot continue indefinitely in a finite world.

According to a research note recently sent to clients by Deutsche Bank, the AI bo-m is currently helping the US economy avoid a recession but it cannot continue indefinitely. George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, said the US would be close to a recession this year if Big Tech were not spending so heavily on building new AI data centers.

The "AI machines" are literally saving the US economy right now, Saravelos said, but this kind of growth cannot be sustained unless spending remains on an ever-growing course. Nvidia, the major supplier of powerful AI accelerators used in data centers, could potentially bear much of the residual growth the US economy has experienced in recent months.

"The bad news is that in order for the tech cycle to continue contributing to GDP growth, capital investment needs to remain parabolic. This is highly unlikely," Saravelos said.

Deutsche Bank highlights that much of this growth comes from new facilities being built by human workers, while the AI technology and services sector has yet to make a meaningful contribution to the GDP.

Around half of the market gains captured by the S&P 500 index have been driven by tech-related stocks, Deutsche Bank warns. A separate report by Torsten Sløk of Apollo Management concurs, noting that equity investors are "dramatically overexposed" to AI investments.

According to analysts at Bain & Co., even with all this spending, AI is likely to generate insufficient revenue to fund further growth initiatives. By 2030, anticipated demand for AI services would require $2 trillion in annual revenues, leaving a shortfall of $800 billion globally to meet that demand.

Nvidia recently committed $100 billion to OpenAI to build an additional 10 gigawatts of AI computing capacity, while OpenAI escalated the investment by planning a full network of new AI data centers. Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged that AI investors are behaving irrationally, and some will inevitably lose significant sums of money as a result.

Will AI capital expenditure continue to surge with staggering figures and impossibly high revenue expectations? Baidu CEO Robin Li recently predicted that 99 percent of so-called AI companies will not survive the bubble, while legitimate businesses are now squandering money and potential productivity gains in an attempt to turn everything into an AI workload.

https://www.techspot.com/news/109626-ai-bubble-only-thing-keeping-us-economy-together.html

MORE WARNINGS:

AI bo-m drives record S&P 500 valuations, but Goldman Sachs warns of $1 trillion risk ahead

Investors debate how long Big Tech's AI spree can last

https://www.techspot.com/news/109358-ai-bo-m-drives-record-sp-valuations-but-goldman.html

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Auto Industry in Crisis: Why Plunging Sales and Mass Debt Signal a Broader Economic Threat

The cracks in the U.S. economy are becoming impossible to ignore, and the auto industry is flashing the brightest warning signs. From plummeting used-car sales at major retailers to mass bankruptcies among suppliers, a confluence of negative factors suggests a looming recession on Main Street that the stock market seems dangerously detached from.

The Used-Car and Truck Market Collapse

The evidence starts with sales figures and the struggling consumer:

CarMax stock is in freefall, down 40% this year, including a recent 20% single-day drop. The reason is clear: vehicle sales are declining, leading to a 28% decrease in net income.

The subprime auto loan market is buckling. Tricolor, a major subprime auto financier, filed for bankruptcy on September 10. High-risk lending is becoming unsustainable, with loan delinquencies at 5% and repossessions up 20% year-over-year (YOY). This signals that the hardest-hit consumers are running out of money.

The commercial side is just as weak. U.S. heavy truck sales have collapsed to levels lower than during the pandemic, plunging by 131,000 units, or 24%. A recent government response—a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks—is unlikely to help when the core problem is lack of demand, not foreign competition. If manufacturers can’t sell trucks and CarMax can’t sell cars, tariffs won't fix the underlying issue.

The Domino Effect on Manufacturing and Suppliers

The slowdown in sales has created a severe bottleneck in the supply chain, threatening the entire manufacturing ecosystem:

North American orders for goods are down 21% from the year before, signaling manufacturers are cutting future production plans.

This lack of demand is crushing suppliers under the weight of debt. First Brands, an American supplier that makes essential parts like water pumps and filters, filed for bankruptcy. The core reason: low orders from automakers. The company carries a staggering $6 billion in debt, illustrating how rapidly the crisis is moving up the supply chain.

The Economic Reckoning

These company and industry-specific problems translate directly to a broader economic downturn:

Job and Production Cuts: With sales falling and debt rising, manufacturers are forced to pull back on production, leading to cut hours and mass layoffs.

GDP Contraction: Decreased production and lost jobs immediately reduce business-to-business spending, which then triggers an overall dip in GDP and economic activity.

The Stock Market Disconnect: The data points to a major economic contraction, yet the broader stock market has remained resilient, creating a "bubble." If this economic reality forces a correction, the market risks a major "popping" event, threatening the pensions, 401(k)s, and wealth of millions of retail investors.

The bottom line is that the auto industry, a massive pillar of the American economy, is in deep distress. The warning signals are undeniable, suggesting that the current Wall Street enthusiasm is out of sync with Main Street's grim reality.

Rumors have it that techs in Texas and Florida have really noticed a slow down in the economy. Making techs feel uncertain about their financial future. Does Texas and Florida have a NO LAYOFF CLAUSE like Californias MOA?

UBS economists argue layoffs are happening at normal or elevated rates, not unusually low as often described.

Hiring has slowed while layoffs have risen, with unemployment claims at a 4-year high and August layoff announcements up 13% year over year.

If hiring slows further while layoffs continue at current levels, the labor market could contract and raise recession risks.

Official BLS data still shows layoffs near historic lows, but UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said it is not reliable for real-time tracking.

Many economists blame the government's tariff policies for weakening the job market, raising costs, fueling uncertainty, and reducing spending.

Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-might-worse-economists-140455255.html

The number of U.S. rigs in operation has fallen this year, by around 69 to 414, according to Baker Hughes. Kirk Edwards, the president of Texas-based Latigo Petroleum, said, “We've gone from ‘drill, baby, drill' to 'wait, baby wait’ here in the Permian.” Many U.S. producers are waiting for oil prices to increase before they raise production, requiring between $70 and $75 a barrel to put rigs back into operation.

The decision to cut spending by many U.S. oil and gas majors, which follows a post-pandemic era of megamergers and high spending, has resulted in widespread job cuts. As OPEC+ looks to increase production in the coming months, we can expect the low oil price trend to continue, likely resulting in low profits for several U.S. companies, and cautious spending plans are expected for the coming months.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Majors-Slash-Jobs-Despite-Trumps-Fossil-Fuel-Push.html

• Booming AI demand this week sent Oracle's stock to a record high not long after reports that the computing giant laid off hundreds of workers.
• Several other tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon have recently cut jobs to lower costs while spending billions on AI expansion.
• Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has told employees that Amazon expects to operate with a smaller headcount in the coming years as AI advances.

https://www.investopedia.com/business-is-booming-for-many-tech-giants-they-re-laying-workers-off-anyway-oracle-11807131

So I have a couple of senior folks who work for Wall St. firms , and they have given me a heads up that Q1 is going to be a major hemorrhaging of white collar jobs,sectors mostly affected are big pharma, telecomm ( including at T. , VZ and CISCO) , and finance. .

Basically, companies are already pricing in the rate cut, but the unemployment numbers coupled with tarrifs effects and a expected weak holiday season is going to cause this.. so better save your nuts this winter..

The beginning is very warped. The film explores the impact of labor-saving machinery on employment and the economy. As factories ramp up production for defense needs, workers face potential layoffs due to automation. The narrative follows a group of factory workers and managers grappling with rising inventories and the challenge of selling increased output at higher prices. Despite aggressive marketing efforts, the lack of consumer purchasing power leads to a failure in sales campaigns. The film ultimately raises questions about balancing technological advancement with job security and the need for economic prosperity to enable consumer spending. Keywords automation, employment, labor-saving machines, production, layoffs, marketing, consumer purchasing power, economic prosperity, sales campaigns, job security Email us at footage@avgeeks.com if you have questions about the footage and are interested in using it in your project.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/factory-workers-the-labor-movement-a-history-of-manufacturing-layoffs/vi-AA1AuH6j?ocid=msedgntp&pc=W230&cvid=68c313f38e1c4e1d93c93bbfe34cbb04&ei=47

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/09/ai-bubble-us-economy/684128/

This is a long read so you have been warned up front. Those with ADHD/ADD take your adderal first and don't complain.

Good article talking about a potential AI bubble impact comparable to the Internet bubble impact from 2000-2002. The companies that are investing billions in AI research and data centers aren't seeing the return on investment they expected. Actual impacts of AI to the workforce haven't been as great as the media reports.

Maybe not having a core dependence on AI might benefit Intel if they can stay focused on fixing the manufacturing issues and stay in business long enough.

I’ve been putting all the energy and time I can into making sure I’ve got other options and some savings. I don’t expect things to get better, quite the opposite. More frequent, bigger layoffs are likely, because there’s no turning this ship around in this economy. It’ll get worse before it gets better, and who knows how far off that “better” really is. Save your energy, look out for yourself, and make sure you’ve at least got the basics to bridge the gap.

Virginia and New Jersey have been hit especially hard, a Stateline analysis shows.

https://westvirginiawatch.com/2025/09/01/states-begin-to-see-job-losses-from-trumps-cuts-housing-and-spending-slowdowns/

Most people are clueless of the world around them but please prepare. Here is why they are coming out with the severance plan(s) changes. SF is f-cked and so is our society. Verify and do your own research, you don't have to believe me... but this is what politics and corporations like SF have done to you! Greed, corruption and immorality, as history always repeats itself. Wake up and become truly WOKE! It's all going to come crashing down sooner than later!
AI will eliminate thousands of job
Automation is here! Ask underwriting
Too many non-customer facing jobs at SF - going away! Horrible new hires/workforce!
70-75% of people can't afford a home - we sell homeowners insurance ????
65-70% of people can't afford to buy a new car - we sell car insurance ????
2032-That is 6 years - Social Security goes insolvent and will only be able to pay 74% of benefits. What do you think people will do?
50% of people have no retirement savings.
60% of American can't cover a $1000 expense - everyone is broke!
Personal Credit Card debt just hit an all time high of $1.21 trillion.
$1.6 trillion dollars of student loan debt.
Average new car payment is $735! Record repossessions!
45% of Women Will Be Single by 2030 and will never have kids. (no more life insurance sells) Why do you think the US and Europe is flooding its countries with the third world, as Nancy P. said who is going to pick our crops or build stuff? I don't see white and black kids out there, do you?
Populatons - China - 1.46 billion and India 1.4 billion, USA - 356 million! Who do you think wins the economic wars with that much disposable labor!
60% of men are not dating and do not want to date.
$38 Trillion dollars in debt and we are spending $1 trillion a year to pay the interest on the loan. Still running trillions of dollars deficits.
By 2032 it will be $50 trillion and will cost taxpayers/you $2 trillion in interest. That means your taxes will have to double and inflation will get worse as we print more money! We have 801 billionaires in the USA worth $6.5 trillion. If we seized all their wealth/assets it would run the government for about 9 months! They would be broke...one time deal. It would also mean no more Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft etc...because most of their worth (Musk, Gates, Zuckerberg, Bezos) is stock ownership, not actually money in the bank. Sounds good but is not reality......
Not even going to even get into all re--rded culture issues .....
This does not end well, SF knows it but most of you do not! Educate yourself. At the end of the day, most of you will be standing in a bread line, begging for water and will ask yourself how this happened overnight...ignorance is bliss. Probably can't do anything about it as it is going to happen anyways. What comes next when it all goes down.... well, let's just say, it will be beyond anyone's comprehension and will make WWII and/or the Great Depression look like a vacation! Su-ks but true! Again you can research anything written here..take a few minutes....don't be that mindless lemming walking off the cliff like the rest of the retar-s! Severance packages are the least of your worries! Your welcome.....

5 year note is down to 3.7%. YTD Aggregate Bond Index up 4.97%. 3 YR Return up to 3.15%. Life is Good. Dancing in the streets. Back in the Black. 90% chance Fed will cut in Sept. No Lisa Cook ?!?!?!? Layoffs ?

Chipmaker Marvell Technology forecast quarterly revenue below market estimates on Thursday, disappointing investors who are accustomed to strong results from artificial intelligence-facing firms and sending its shares down 12% after hours.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chipmaker-marvells-weak-data-center-forecast-prompts-ai-investors-dump-its-stock-2025-08-28/

John Deere Announces Layoffs as Slump in Agricultural Economy and Tariffs Hit Sales
As a direct result of the weakened demand and lower order volumes, John Deere has announced another round of layoffs.

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/john-deere-announces-layoffs-as-slump-in-agricultural-economy-and-tariffs-hit-sales-38785

ChemAnalyst

Aug/26/2025 05:24 PM
Location: Moline, Illinois (John Deere HQ)

One in five U.S. employers surveyed by the Conference Board plans to slow hiring in the second half of 2025, nearly double the rate of companies that anticipated bringing on fewer people at this time last year.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/more-u-s-companies-plan-to-slow-hiring-in-second-half-of-2025/ar-AA1KWbFc

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2025/aug/24/layoffs-at-john-deere-reveal-how-trumps-trade-war/

This Board has gone de-ad quick. Is it vacations or are u afraid to discuss layoffs all of a sudden ? Jerome Powell spooked us all at Jackson Hole today with Fedspeake and Cap Management made some darn good cashola today with those coinbase and Intel positions...back in black sooner than you'll ever know...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/unemployment-rate-by-state-2025/

How much of this is Ford's fault?

The vehicle manufacturing sector is under a lot of pressure. I’m afraid there will be more cuts.

https://theconversation.com/state-department-layoffs-could-hurt-us-companies-ability-to-compete-globally-an-economist-explains-why-262988

It’s not just that our manufacturing could take a hit. Agriculture is already struggling, demand has been going down steadily, and purchasing power is clearly slipping. A lot of folks are holding off on buying or investing simply because there’s so much uncertainty. All of that is bound to affect us down the line. And that likely means more cuts, more layoffs, and more of us out there looking for work. It feels like we’re sliding into a vicious cycle, and I’m worried about what all that will mean for our jobs.

Every time we had a meeting with our leaders, we're always told 'Man, It feels bad. Totally unprecedented. But we gotta keep our heads up. Support one another. Work leaner this year. Put aside all the angst and bottle it up.. etc'

Expect more layoffs and restructure in September/October 2025, especially for tech orgs. A lot of offloading being moved towards the Manilla and India teams. Our stock has dropped and is hovering in the high 80s, compared to 120 it used to be; but we can probably assume this economy under this administration isn't going to promote people to buy more (process more transactions)