#debt

After the net debt fiasco, the CFO is next to be jettisoned. To be replaced with someone better equipped to manage the balance sheet. I imagine the search has already been in progress.

I only see a few options.

1 - Keep under performing as a smaller, poorly managed Oil & Gas company?
2 - Buy something, incurring more debt?
3 - Sell all or part of Ovintiv now that Anadarko is closed and add in a heavy haricut to reduce headcount?

Good luck everyone.

Fact

Your alarm goes off at 6 AM. There's an email from "Oracle Leadership." You've never gotten a message from that sender before. It says your job is gone, today is your last day, and severance details will arrive by DocuSign. By the time you finish reading, your company laptop is already locked.

This happened to up to 30,000 Oracle employees this week. Oracle reported $17.2 billion in revenue last quarter, its best in 15 years. And it still fired nearly 1 in 5 of its people. The stock went up 6% today.

Oracle owes over $108 billion. The company signed a $156 billion deal to build AI data centers over five years, mostly for OpenAI (the company behind ChatGPT). That requires buying roughly 3 million specialized computer chips. Two years ago, Oracle spent $6.9 billion a year on this kind of construction. This year it's $50 billion.

The 30,000 people who got that email are funding the gap. Investment bank TD Cowen estimates the layoffs will free up $8 to $10 billion in cash flow, money going straight into chips and construction. Oracle filed a $2.1 billion restructuring plan with regulators in March, and nearly $1 billion had already been spent before the emails went out.

Lenders are getting nervous. The cost to insure Oracle's debt against default has spiked to levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis. Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt in November, warning the company is one step from "junk" status, the point where lenders consider you a serious default risk. Some banks have stopped lending to Oracle for these projects altogether.

The gamble gets worse. CNBC reported on March 9 that OpenAI, Oracle's biggest customer for all of this, is already looking at newer, faster chips from Nvidia. Oracle ordered the current generation and spent billions building out a massive Texas facility. OpenAI may not fully expand into it. The chips improve faster than the buildings go up.

Hour Media acquired SagaCity Media, a regional publishing group. The purchase price for SagaCity Media was $1.6 million. Layoff notices were sent to employees, including Portland Monthly staff. Net proceeds from the sale will go to First Fed due to SagaCity's $2.6 million debt. A court-appointed receiver oversaw the purchase agreement.

https://www.oregonlive.com/portland/2026/04/layoffs-hit-trend-setting-portland-magazine-as-regional-publishing-group-sold-for-16m.html

Bandy is out, Louie (a guy who came along with Icahn, left, and then came back—no one really knows why) is in.

Company says “business as usual” and reaffirmed 2026 guidance.

No mention of sale, Fujifilm, or strategic review.

The fun theories about “getting ready to sell to Fujifilm so the Deason kids can cash out” sound great in the break room, but the cold truth from the actual SEC filings shows a very different picture:

• Xerox has ~$4.5 BILLION (with a B) in debt and only ~$165 MILLION (with an M) market cap.

• Anyone wanting to “buy Xerox” is not writing a small check, they are inheriting a massive restructuring headache with high-interest debt, pensions, and declining revenue.

Real power sits with the creditors, not some quick M&A fairy tale:

• Jefferies Finance + bank syndicate: biggest secured loan, first dibs on the assets

• TPG Credit: $450M deal in Feb 2026 secured on Xerox’s valuable brand names & IP (clever “deal away” move)

• Deason family entities (via Scott Letier, still Chairman): hold both ~9% equity and $250M in private debt. Darwin Deason (who helped ki-l the last Fuji deal) passed in Dec 2025 — his family office is now both owner and lender.

• Scattered bondholders and Citibank/PNC on the revolving line.

Equity right now is basically a lottery ticket on survival.

In other words: Vanguard, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Dimensional Fund Advisors, State Street... have no real power over the company: between them, they own 80% of the shares, whose TOTAL value as of today is… $135 MILLION (with an M). Peanuts.

This is a capital structure story: creditors positioning for control, possible debt-for-equity swaps, and who ends up owning the pieces.

Save the Fuji rumors for the water cooler.

The real game is who owns the debt and who can force the next move, not who owns the shares.

Facts > speculation.

Check the 10-K and recent 8-Ks if you want the receipts.

The Plano campus looks like it will be great. But like everything AT&T does, it’s already behind schedule and over-budget. Rising oil, mid-terms, and potential interest rate increases won’t help. Not to mention the 1/4 Trillion they just committed to over the same timeline. I thought we still carry a huge debt load?

And if you are Rule of 75, or will be by 2029, the likelihood you ever step foot in the new buildings as an active employee is almost zero. Stash your cash! Don’t count on 6 month severance either.

Then again, with current under-30 age employees realizing what they signed up for and are fleeing after a short 1-2 year cup-of-coffee, I can’t imagine many of the current employees will see it either.

Major Legal Battle with Creditors (BIGGEST STORY) This is a high-stakes financial fight tied to ~$26B in debt, and it could shape the company’s future restructuring.
Subscriber Losses + Heavy Competition: Optimum lost ~62,000 broadband customers in Q4 2025.
Financial Performance (Latest Earnings): Q4 2025 revenue: ~$2.18B (down year-over-year)
What Changes Are Likely Coming Operationally: Read the writing on the wall!!

My LMFAO this am… CDW having a collections attorney making threat calls for $400 or so owed on an employee computer purchase… over two years after I was laid off. Money must be tight.

It’s safe to say Ford is going to go bankrupt within 3 years. Our cars are not selling without huge discounts. See for yourself..2025 f150s still available for sale. During the good times like 8 yrs ago when we made some money we should have paid off the debt and invested in quality instead of Farleys bev pet projects. He is not fired for that and executives pocketed huge bonuses and they fired normal workers through various layoffs. We had the time to turn things around but we blew it.

The ratings agency on Friday downgraded Xerox's corporate family rating one level to Caa2 from B2. Moody's also assigned a Caa3 rating to Xerox's step up backed senior unsecured notes due in 2030. The ratings outlook was changed to negative from stable.

Moody's cut Xerox's credit ratings, citing concerns over the company's financial performance since its deal to acquire Lexmark closed last year.

Moody's said the downgrade was driven by Xerox's worse-than-planned performance after its $1.5 billion acquisition of printer maker Lexmark closed in July 2025. Continuing challenges in the printer market and subsequent revenue declines may make it difficult for Xerox to refinance its debt before it matures in 2028, Moody's said.

Moody's said Xerox will likely remain under pressure as its large peers; such as Canon, Fujifilm and HP; benefit from more diverse revenue streams and stronger balance sheets. The ratings agency expects Xerox's revenue to decline by a low- to mid-single-digit rate, partially offset by margin improvements as the company realizes synergies from its Lexmark acquisition.

Xerox has also implemented a warrant program that allows for an effective exchange of debt at distressed levels for equity. If a material amount of debt is exchanged, Moody's said it could view the transaction as a distressed exchange.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/moody-s-downgrades-xerox-on-concerns-over-financial-performance-ce7e5fd3dc8ef325

Despite all the irrational exuberance a couple of weeks ago when Netflix dropped out of the bidding for WBD, Paramount stock hit its lowest point since TWO THOUSAND AND NINE today.

Seems the reality check finally reached buyers that a $79,000,000,000 debt load is completely unserviceable by any company, let alone one that's currently bleeding more than $300,000,000 per quarter.

But don't worry: Davey Boy is going to "reinvent the industry!"

The seven people who will still be working a PSKY (or whatever the heck he calls it) a year from now should definitely not expect a STIP payout.

AT&T Debt 2013:
Long-Term Debt (End of 2013): Approximately $69.29 billion.
Total Liabilities (2013): The company had a substantially lower debt burden compared to the post-acquisition peaks

AT&T Debt 2026 (Projected/Early 2026 Data):
Total Debt (End of 2025/Early 2026): $136.1 billion.
Net Debt (End of 2025): $117.4 billion.

Oracle is considering laying off 20,000 to 30,000 employees. This aims to generate $8-10 billion for AI infrastructure. The company faces high costs from major AI client commitments like OpenAI. US banks have retreated from financing, doubling Oracle's borrowing costs. Oracle also plans debt and equity raises and may sell its Cerner unit.

https://mlq.ai/news/oracle-eyes-major-layoffs-of-20000-30000-staff-to-offset-surging-ai-data-center-costs/

https://commsrisk.com/verizon-turnaround-not-likely/

The U.S. National debt is -

(Currently) $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per U.S. usdebtclock.

AI will take away (most) computer dependent jobs in the future (not all) but enough for the Unemployment rate to spike significantly thus reducing Tax revenue.

So Income Tax, and Corporate Tax will (need) to be Increased (especially) on Corporations, and the wealthy; to be able to cover it.

Reality is, even with the Trump Import tariffs that were nullified ($200.0 Billion a year with refunds of $125.0+ Billion in process back to Corporations-businesses) by the Supreme Court it wouldn't even faze the (current) $990.0 Billion (and rising) a year in Interest paid by U.S. taxpayers to outside Investors that finance the U.S. National debt.

These are the facts.

Are we in massive debt over HIH? Is that why so many quality people are being laid off? To pay off that debt?

Just incase anyone was wondering. Payments on this new $405M loan work out to roughly $49,931 PER DAY 365 days per year until march 30th of 2031... and on April 1st 2031 Theres a balloon payment due of just a hair shy of $323,000,000.

OR $69,827 EVERY SINGLE WORKING DAY. $8728/hr... every working hour, for five years.

Think about this for a moment. Carl was brought on “board” and so followed our CEO who Carl brought with him. Eventually they bought our Carl who was known for selling off pieces of companies until nothing was left. I think our CEO is still aligned with him. He alone has sold off everything and anything that was tangible. In all seriousness, what remains owned by Xerox? (Besides debt)

They just borrowed another 475m at an 7.5% interest and a 2% royalty on top!

They call it a joint venture.

ROFL

some will be asked to take pay cuts to reduce debt!

Updated - T, 2/10/26.

AI Innovation -

1) Software Firms.

2) Private Credit Firms.

3) Insurance Brokerage Firms.

4) Wealth-Management Firms.

While AI contributes many useful innovations towards society, and will create (some) related jobs.

The stocks of those respective industries are (currently) being sold-off within the Global markets.

The unemployment rate will increase (along with layoffs) the U.S. National debt (currently) at $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per usdebtclock will have (less) contributions from U.S. taxpayers (in general) unless Corporations, and the wealthy; pay more.

This list is going (not if) expand over time, if the job is computer dependent; AI can (and will) take its' place.

AI Innovation -

1) Software Firms.

2) Private Credit Firms.

3) Insurance Brokerage Firms.

4) Wealth-Management Firms.

While AI contributes many useful innovations towards society, and will create (some) related jobs.

The stocks of those respective industries are (currently) being sold off within the Global markets.

The unemployment rate will increase (along with layoffs) the U.S. National debt (currently) at $38.7 Trillion (and rising) per usdebtclock will have (less) contributions from U.S. taxpayers (in general) unless Corporations, and the wealthy; pay more.

This list is going (not if) expand over time, if the job is computer dependent; AI can (and will) take its' place.

What’s the chance LE, Safra Catz, Clay and Mike might be named eventually in a SEC lawsuit for fraud and materially falsifying information to investors over its debt capacity? I think it’s pretty likely. Especially if they sell Cerner.

I just want to reassure everyone that whatever happens with Oracle and its debt, LE will come out on top and unscathed. He is five steps ahead of everyone else playing the game, and his (and his family’s) nest egg will only continue to grow. Everything else is noise. If you choose to play in this space, rest assured, he will burn you.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4545115-oracle-plans-massive-50-billion-debt-and-equity-raise

If stock prices fall to 154 or below on Monday / Tuesday, better be prepared to leave.
I also doubt Fusion in addition to legacy apps will be more badly hit in addition to Cerner.
Most people reporting to LE org might be in trouble or waiting for reorg.

Personally, I think MicroFocus was already ruined financially before the acquisition, while OpenText has suffered taking on massive debt and legacy baggage that has stalled any momentum we had previously with Cloud and Cybersecurity.

Something doesn't add up.

Aside from the cash for shares at $8, which only a lunatic would exercise, I would like to test my understanding of the debt instrument exchange.

Am I correct that bondholders can essentially "self-call" their bond, benefiting Xerox by having the obligation to pay interest removed? If yes, what is the value to the bondholder who now holds a variable dividend equity position based on their bond par value in a company that may not recover?

Q4 only looks “good” if you stop at the headline: revenue jumped +26%, but that’s almost entirely because Xerox bought Lexmark.

Strip that out and the underlying business is still shrinking by 9%. Cash is the real story: free cash flow for 2025 fell to about $130M, down from roughly $470M last year, a MASSIVE drop at the exact moment debt is crushing the company.

The snapshot that truly matters: Xerox has roughly $500M in cash, $4+ billion in debt, and only about $400–450M of equity left.

Goodwill sits around $2+ billion (Goodwill Guy will check this), meaning one big write-down and equity is basically gone on paper.

Interest expense alone is running close to $250M A YEAR. This is why management rolled out the warrant scheme before earnings as an attempt to reduce debt without spending cash and without going to bankruptcy court.

Q4 proved the company is operationally alive but financially boxed in.

The warrants, the timing, the messaging... all of it points to one thing: advanced financial engineering to avoid Chapter 11, not confidence in growth.

This is what survival mode looks like when you still want to stay in control.

IBM isn't a healthy company

https://techrights.org/n/2026/01/29/IBM_s_Financial_Performance_in_IBM_s_Own_Words_Money_Down_Debt_.shtml

They failed to pay my last salary. I left Dell on my own terms and they haven’t made the last salary payment. Never could I ever imagine I’d have to start a debt collection process against one of the richest companies in the world!

For those that are being WFRd, please check your payments and check that taxes are paid correctly.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The dividend has got to go. It's only $13m a year, but XRX needs the $$ to pay interest. XRX should have fully eliminated the dividend when Carl left. Also, how stupid would it be to issue more shares without cutting out the dividend. XRX must go into serious cash preservation mode.

Why is Oracle struggling?
However, unlike its largest competitors, whose profits are paying for their data center projects, Oracle is borrowing heavily. Some investors are concerned the company will struggle to repay its debt if AI demand falls short of expectations. Oracle's business with OpenAI has added to investor concerns

This is what the Trump administration -

Needs to be concerned about (like previous administrations) since 2008.

The U.S. National debt - $38.7 Trillion (and rising) with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124.03% (current) per usdebtclock.

This means that the U.S. National debt is (currently) 124.03% of the U.S. economy.

At some point in time, even with GDP artificially growing (for now) but be aware that the LEI - Leading Economic Indicator has been Down from September 2024 - September 2025.

(Every time in U.S. history) when the LEI has dropped below the CEI - Coincident Economic Index (current state of the U.S. economy) a Major recession has ensued (thereafter).

2001 > 2008 > 2020 (Brief).

(2) things -

First, the U.S. government shutdown prevented data from appearing (waiting) for Q4 2025.

Second, Fed stimulus being injected is preventing (for now) the Major recession that is already technically here; at least for Main Street; I believe that it will come for Wall Street.

Those signs will appear stronger as 2026 progresses, Corporate layoffs ramping up again Q1 2025 (March - April) timeframe; small business activity (ramp-down); etc.

See the Trees through the Forest.

Poor Warner Media. I was just reading about how messed up WBD is following the AT&T debacle and I was wondering to myself, 'what went so wrong'. So, like a true att employee, I asked Google. Funny thing is that the problems that ki-led what should have been the deal of a lifetime are still here!

Financial mismanagement, soaring debt, cultural and social conflicts, strategic failures, poor leaders and inconsistent leadership, execution & delivery problems, and, att's goto optimization strategy, layoffs!

It is shameful to think that the same leaders who destroyed a film industry pioneer are doing the same thing to a telecom pioneer and we are watching it happen in real time. I hope i'm wrong but I believe this Plano relo will be the final nail in the coffin for AT&T. Our leadership knows what they are doing. Think about this, we are sitting on $140 BILLION in debt.

Put in in perspective. When you are in debt, what do you do? You tighten the belt. Cut some cost, cancel some streaming services. Do you sell your house? Maybe, but that's like the last ditch effort. Let me remind you of an old company called Sears Roebuck. Remember them? They were on top of the world and had this iconic skyscraper. Then, things started unraveling. Sears tried to acquire businesses but was never able to capitalize. They tried pushing their brand on everything and everywhere. Soaring debt sent them to a large corporate park on the outskirts of Chicago. Sears was a blue-chip, dividend market leader. They were literally the amazon of the 20th century. They even had a sports stadium. Where are they now? 5 stores, a website, distribution agreements, and a brand that they pray someone, someday, will want to reboot.

There's your future, people. We are Sears.

Sorry Warner. Best of luck.

OK, here is the money crunch. There was ~$479,000,000 in cash or equivalents on the books on 9/30/25.

Great! (not really)

There are also 27,000 people on payroll. Divide the numbers and you get $17,740 per person. Great? No, not really.

Some people make a lot, some make terrible money. If the mean salary is $50,000/year and you divide that into $17,740, you get 35.4% of a year - or about 90 days of payroll.

Money is coming in still but this, and overhead, the cost of goods, and most importantly, the debt load, is too much to survive. The only way they can survive is to borrow money and they can't. It's too late to fire their way out of this, hence the lack of trying.

There are two smaller debt payments (both around $100 mil) due this year. Either one could end the ballgame.

The (2) contributors for a Major recession when they do (and have) happened during U.S. economic-financial history are Unemployment, and a Major Downturn in consumer spending; currently (70%) of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) as shown in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index).

2025 - Worst year of job growth since 2020, just reported.

2025 - Worst year of layoffs since 2020 (1.17 million), just reported.

2025 - The seven (7) U.S. debt bubbles at the highest level in U.S. history with (all of them) at (record) levels, just reported.

The (7) Debt bubbles - Household spending, mortgage loans; credit card debt, automotive loans; student loans, stock purchase financing; and finally the U.S. National debt.

The U.S. National debt (currently) is at $38.6 Trillion (and rising) with Interest paid per year by U.S. taxpayers at $968.0 Billion to outside Investors who finance it per usdebtclock.

Currently (skewed) U.S. GDP (positive data) is from AI corporate infrastructure spending, and higher income household spending.

Both of those things will (not if) revert Downwards over time impacting U.S. GDP negatively.

Note - The stock market, and U.S. economy are (not) the same thing.

It is called Divergence that (currently) exists between them (for now).